I'm betting he wins 353 electoral votes, to McCain's 185.
Biggest possible upset: Obama wins any one of Georgia, North Dakota, Montana, or Arizona. If he wins 2 or more of those states, it will be a pretty humiliating defeat for McCain (especially Arizona), though I see it as unlikely.
There's been a lot of hope among libertarians, objectivists, and the more sane branch of the Republican party that the upcoming defeat will lead to a period of soul-searching, from which they'll re-emerge as a rational alternative to the left - that is, they tell the religious nuts to fuck off to the Constitution Party, leaving a more secular party with a clear set of principles: limited government, individual freedom (in both social and economic areas), and a strong national defense.
I somehow doubt that this will happen, however. They're already setting up a huge blame-game. When they lose tomorrow, you can expect to hear lots of cries that the election was stolen, that the liberal media lied to everyone, it was a conspiracy, and blah blah blah. I imagine that there will be few, if any, serious discussions about how the party strayed from the ideals that drew people to it in the first place.
I think that over the next few years, we can expect the Republican party to be smaller, more bitter, more hateful, and pandering even more to the religious right. The Democrats are expected to pick up 6 or 7 seats in the Senate. Most of the Republican seats that are going to be lost are held by moderates. The religious extremists are going to be all that's left. The situation in the House is similar.
I'd vote in Republicans to the Congress, but I have a hard time even believing they'll block much of anything. My hope is that Dems will only pick up a few seats, if any, so it doesn't get to a point where they can block all filibusters.
But yeah, the Republican response is already all over the internet; the mass media was in the tank for Obama, the election was stolen, ACORN something something.
Hopefully John McCain will have the class to concede defeat early on, and not cry and blather on like losers have done in the past. I want this election to be over.
Did you hear that Obama is a secret Muslim and is not a U.S. citizen? My aunt just sent me an email about it! It must be true!
I also heard from a guy at work that he has to strangle a kitten while his wife reads aloud the Arabic translation of the Communist Manifesto in order to have an orgasm! Who is this man?
Seriously, though, the fact that the focus of the campaign has been on ridiculous rumors rather than policy shows how bankrupt both parties have become.
Did you know that Obama was seen jumping out of the plane that crashed into the World Trade Center just seconds before impact WITH NONE OTHER THAN WILLIAM AYERS?
On a somewhat, someway brighter note, I was surprised when I asked my grandfather who he would vote for and he said he would vote Obama. He's a rather racist mother****er, but also a die-hard democrat. He either has gotten over his racism, or just hates Republicans THAT much.
On a less bright note, the Democrats' answer to "if you vote for Obama you're an America-hating communist" has emerged as "If you don't vote for Obama, you're a racist".
I haven't talked to my grandparents about the election. I know they're voting for McCain, though. They're not racist, they're just die-hard oldschool Republicans. They're not at all religious, and they haven't expressed any hostility to gay rights or abortion rights. And yet, they'd vote for Genghis Kahn if he ran as a Republican.
I actually tend to think their politics are far more rational than my parents' (especially my mom) who vote for Democrats then complain that their taxes are too high.
My grandfather is a really rad guy. It's really sad to see his health failing the way it is. He fought at Normandy, and some major winter campaign in WWII. I forget which one.
There's been a lot of hope among libertarians, objectivists, and the more sane branch of the Republican party that the upcoming defeat will lead to a period of soul-searching, from which they'll re-emerge as a rational alternative to the left - that is, they tell the religious nuts to fuck off to the Constitution Party, leaving a more secular party with a clear set of principles: limited government, individual freedom (in both social and economic areas), and a strong national defense.
I hope I'm wrong.
-- Edited by john31584 at 19:24, 2008-11-03
you neglect to consider that the majority of republiclones do not believe in evolution; therefore, they will remain as god made them